Russia’s offensive losing steam: experts

Ukrainian towns and cities have suffered months of intensifying Russian bombardment. But on the battlefield, Russia’s offensive is showing signs of losing steam.

More than four years into its invasion, the Russian defence ministry’s statements claiming to have captured towns and villages in Ukraine have become less regular.

And in some areas, Ukraine’s forces have managed to gain a foothold.

In April and May, the Russian army lost more ground in Ukraine than it gained, according to an AFP analysis of data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Although these territorial gains are too small to change the situation on the ground, they illustrate the growing difficulties that the Russian army faces.

“The Russian army’s advance is proceeding at an extremely slow pace,” Russian military expert Alexander Khramchikhin told AFP.

Even though the Russian army is bigger and better equipped than its Ukrainian counterpart, the use of drones has created a “dead zone” on either side of the front line.

Unless the Ukrainian army’s resources are “completely depleted”, then an acceleration in Russian advances is difficult to foresee, said Khramchikhin.

Ukrainian forces have meanwhile “largely halted” Russia’s spring-summer offensive, the ISW said in a report earlier this month. Unable to launch major offensive operations on the front, Russia has taken to launching infiltration operations: sending small groups of soldiers behind enemy lines to hold key positions until reinforcements arrive.

Meanwhile, Ukraine hit an oil facility overnight in Russia’s Yaroslavl region, and the Azot chemical plant in the Tula region, President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote on X yesterday.

Zelensky said the Azot plant was critical for Russia’s explosives production, and that strikes on Russian military logistics had also been conducted in occupied parts of Ukraine.