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Tanker transit through Strait of Hormuz plunges as US-Iran ceasefire fractures

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The Strait of Hormuz faces a renewed plunge in maritime traffic after the United States ended its ceasefire with Iran, casting a shadow over a tentative commercial recovery, as analysts warn unaddressed differences in the framework agreement risk fuelling further escalation.

Traffic volumes dropped again on Thursday, with only 14 vessels transiting the strait, down from 35 a day earlier, according to Veson Nautical, a maritime software and data provider. Real-time data from the vessel-tracking platform MarineTraffic also showed that movements through the strait were largely at a pause on Friday.

Since Washington and Tehran announced their ceasefire framework on June 17, about 513 vessels had passed through the waterway, a significant uptick but still only about one-fifth of the roughly 2,500 vessel transits that would have been recorded under normal conditions, according to Veson Nautical.

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Meanwhile, data from another tracking platform, Kpler, showed that 759 commodity-related vessels had transited the Strait of Hormuz during the same period, noting that daily passages had fallen from 37 on Tuesday to 15 on Thursday.

Alfredo Montufar-Helu, China-based managing director at Ankura Consulting, said the outlook was difficult to project. “It’s clear that the ceasefire agreement failed in covering with sufficient detail what each party wanted and was willing to concede,” he said.

“This appears to have led to a misinterpretation of Iran’s bottom line regarding the strait, a bottom line I don’t think the US will concede on.

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