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What Is Thucydides Trap? Xi Jinping’s Message To Trump Explained
Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday invoked the “Thucydides Trap” during his high-stakes bilateral meeting with US President Donald Trump in Beijing, using the term to underline the risks of growing rivalry between the world’s two largest powers and calling instead for cooperation over confrontation.
The meeting marked Trump’s second visit to China and his first in nine years, with the two leaders holding talks amid escalating geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, technology restrictions, and growing competition between Washington and Beijing.
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Opening the bilateral meeting, Xi framed the future of China-US relations as one of the defining questions of the current era.
“Whether China and the United States can transcend the so-called Thucydides Trap and create a new normalization of relations between major powers; whether we can join hands to address global challenges and inject greater stability into the world; whether we can advance the well-being of the peoples of our two countries and the future destiny of humanity, and jointly create a better future for bilateral relations,” Xi said in his opening remarks.
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What Is The ‘Thucydides Trap’?
The term “Thucydides Trap” has increasingly become part of the global conversation surrounding China-US relations, particularly under Xi’s leadership.
Simply put, the theory describes a dangerous situation in which an established global power becomes threatened by the rapid rise of another power, eventually pushing both sides toward confrontation or even war.
The phrase was popularised by American political scientist Graham Allison, who used it to analyse tensions between China and the United States. Allison borrowed the idea from ancient Greek historian Thucydides, who chronicled the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta over 2,000 years ago.
Thucydides famously wrote that it was “the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta” that made war inevitable. Over time, scholars and policymakers began using the analogy to describe modern power transitions – especially the rise of China against the backdrop of long-standing American dominance.
In recent years, Chinese officials and state media have repeatedly invoked the term while arguing that the US should not treat China’s economic and military rise as a threat. Xi himself has used the phrase multiple times to advocate for stable relations and greater cooperation between Beijing and Washington.
So when Xi told Trump that China and the US should “transcend” or “overcome” the Thucydides Trap, he was effectively urging Washington not to fear China’s rise and instead pursue coexistence and partnership.
Xi later reinforced that message directly, saying: “When the two sides cooperate, both benefit; when they fight, both suffer.”
He also stressed that the “common interests between China and the United States outweigh our differences” and said both countries should become “partners rather than opponents.”
Why Xi’s Remarks Matter
Xi’s remarks come at a time when ties between Beijing and Washington remain deeply strained over multiple flashpoints, including Taiwan, trade tariffs, semiconductor restrictions, military competition in the Indo-Pacific, and supply-chain realignments.
Analysts have long argued that the relationship between the US and China increasingly resembles the kind of great-power rivalry described by the Thucydides Trap theory. Concerns have grown globally that miscalculations between the two nations could destabilise the international economy and security environment.
The symbolism of Trump’s Beijing visit also carries weight. His previous visit to China during his first presidency in 2017 was marked by strong personal diplomacy and grand state ceremonies, but ties between the two countries later deteriorated sharply amid tariff wars and strategic distrust.
During Thursday’s meeting, Trump struck a notably positive tone towards Xi and China.
“The relationship between China and the USA is going to be better than ever before… We’re going to have a fantastic future together,” Trump said while addressing the bilateral meeting.
Praising Xi, Trump added: “I have such respect for China, the job you’ve done. You’re a great leader.”
The US President also described the summit as potentially historic, saying: “Those who say this is maybe the biggest summit ever. They can never remember anything like it.”
