Opinion polls see France's Le Pen winning 2027 election despite guilty verdict

Far-right leader Marine Le Pen could ‌well win France’s presidential election next year despite an appeal court this week upholding a guilty verdict for embezzlement of EU funds, two opinion polls suggest.

Much ​can happen until the ballot’s first round on April 18th next year, and the pollsters stress this is not a forecast, but rather a snapshot of current voting intentions.

But both surveys, by Ifop pollsters for LCI and Le Figaro, and Toluna Harris Interactive for M6 and RTL show Le Pen ​leading the first round and being elected in the run-off on May 2nd, as did most opinion polls before the verdict.

The polls were carried out after the ⁠57-year-old veteran far-right leader announced she would run in the election, following the appeal court’s ruling that found her guilty ‌of having ‌misused ​EU money to pay party staff but reduced an election ban, allowing her to be candidate.

For the first round, Ifop sees the leader of the anti-immigration, eurosceptic National Rally ahead with ⁠36 per cent, improving on ratings of 32-34 per cent in previous surveys ​by the same pollster over the past months. None of ​her opponents would have more than 19 per cent at best. The other poll shows similar results.

In the run-off, which sees the top two ‌candidates from the first round face off, both ​pollsters see Le Pen winning. It’s a narrower win against former prime minister Edouard Philippe, a centre-right candidate, with 49 per cent in ⁠the Harris Interactive poll, which is within the margin ⁠of error.

Both pollsters see Gabriel ​Attal, also a former prime minister to president Emmanuel Macron, at 45 per cent, while if it was the hard-left’s Jean-Luc Melenchon against Le Pen, he would lose by a huge margin, with just about a third of the votes.

Reacting to the surveys, Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure said Le Pen was a “formidable candidate”.

The Socialists, and many other parties, say it was shameful for Le Pen to run despite her conviction. She has appealed the conviction and the highest court, the Cour de Cassation, has said it aimed to give a final verdict before the election.

Le Pen ‌was greeted by cheers and ⁠boos as she launched her presidential campaign on Wednesday. As she shook hands in the street market of La Fleche in the Loire Valley, in western France, some jeered “Give the money back!” and “Go to jail!” while others ‌chanted “Marine, President!” — a sign of the tensions that may lie ahead.

Another poll, published by Elabe pollsters for BFM TV on Wednesday, pointed to some of the ​challenges facing Le Pen. Seven out of 10 voters don’t agree with her statements ​that she is innocent. And while a wide majority of RN voters back her decision to run in the election, there are still 32 per cent of RN voters who don’t.