Iran-US war in numbers: Five charts that lay bare the impact of Trump’s conflict

It is nearly four months since the US and Israel launched war on Iran – a decision which had a dramatic and devastating impact stretching almost every corner of the world.

From skyrocketing oil prices, rising costs of global commodities, and deepening levels of food insecurity and poverty, normal people have been paying the price for a war involving the world’s most advanced military and the two most powerful forces in the Middle East.

But a war that many believed would be short-lived – with Donald Trump repeatedly vowing it would end “soon” with a total victory – dragged on for days, weeks, and then months, inflicting spectacular damage not only on global finances, but on the US military’s reputation as an unassailable force.

The global impact of the Iran war ranges from jet fuel prices, to the price of food, to increases in household bills.

At the centre of the global impact was Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the vital chokepoint through which one fifth of the world’s oil supply flowed during peacetime.

“The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, and finally, higher inflation, which will push up interest rates and make debt even more expensive,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s chief economist.

Although Iran lifted its blockade last week, the impact of its three-month-long closure is expected to be felt for several months. There is also no guarantee it will remain open to shipping; over the weekend, Tehran warned it would impose the blockade once again in response to alleged violations of a truce agreed with the Trump administration last week.

The number of tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz collapsed dramatically the moment the blockade was imposed in March, from a five-day moving average of around 60 per day down to less than one.

Despite a slight increase after the truce was agreed, ship tracking data from analytics firm Kpler show the number has once again plunged.

This has had a direct impact on global oil prices. With Brent crude – the global benchmark – rocketing to a peak of $114 per barrel in early May, a seismic shift was felt across the world.

Prices have largely recovered since a temporary truce came into place between Washington and Tehran, with prices now sitting at around $77 per barrel – $6 higher than the day before the war, but nearly $19 higher than a year-low of $59 in early January.

The impact on the pockets of regular people has been clear.

The starkest example of this is prices at the pump, which have shot up as countries reliant on Brent crude faced shortages of fuel.

In the UK, diesel prices shot up to £1.92, an increase of nearly 50 pence compared to pre-war, while unleaded petrol rose by 27 pence to around £1.59. These were the highest prices since highest since the late 2022, after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine sent unleaded prices up to £1.91 and diesel up to £1.99.

The UK was just one of dozens of countries to be negatively affected. India, Vietnam and other countries in Asia suffered a severe jet fuel shortage, pushing major airlines to severe financial strain, especially after China announced it would halt all of its own jet fuel exports to serve its internal markets.

Jet fuel prices doubled and thousands of flights were cut. The Iran war effectively served as the final blow to US airline Spirit, which had reached a deal with lenders which would have helped it emerge from a second bankruptcy before an increase in aviation turbine fuel (ATF) created major complications.

So bad was the fuel crisis in Asia, that many restaurants were forced to close due to a lack of cooking gas, and in Thailand, cremations were halted by some temples.

The impact on the cost of living went well beyond oil and fuel prices, affecting several commodities and resulting in increasingly bad forecasts for food insecurity in 2026.

The forecasted price for several of the most-traded global commodities has shot up since January, according to the World Bank.

The forecast price for energy commodities in 2026 – i.e. raw materials used to generate power, heat and fuel – is 39.3 per cent higher than it was in January. For 2027, it is 8.5 per cent higher.

Data indicates the same trend for metals, food, and fertiliser, all of which are now forecast to shoot up far more than before the war – a squeeze which will ultimately be passed down to consumers.

The impact of food and fertilisers will be dire for the world’s poorest.

Figures from the World Food Programme suggest the number of people suffering food insecurity is set to rise to 363 million in 2026, an increase of 45 million.

This comes after levels stayed largely the same for the previous three years.

It is largely developing countries which rely the heaviest on imported fertiliser and fuel, and are the most exposed to changes to global market prices. Dependencies on these imports are already creating growing economic burdens, especially in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) notes how higher fuel and fertiliser prices will dent the national GDP of reliant countries, in particular Vietnam (-0.8%), Mozambique (-0.6%), Senegal and Rwanda (both -0.5%).

Poverty rates are expected to rise, especially in Cambodia, Senegal, Tanzania and Nigeria, driving tens of millions deeper into poverty, IFPRI research states.

“The poorest people, who spend the highest share of their income on food and fuels, will be hit the hardest, as will developing economies already struggling under heavy debt burdens,” Mr Gill added.

“All of this is a reminder of a stark truth: war is development in reverse.”