From proxy war to Gulf rivalry: Yemen’s new battle for influence

For more than a decade, Yemen has been viewed primarily through the lens of a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Tehran’s support for the Houthi movement and the Saudi-led military intervention launched in 2015 transformed the country into one of the Middle East’s most visible arenas of geopolitical competition. The conflict came to symbolize a broader struggle for regional influence between two rival powers seeking to shape the political order of the Arab world.

That interpretation remains relevant, but it is increasingly insufficient. While the Houthis continue to dominate much of northern Yemen and Iran remains an important player, the dynamics shaping the country’s future are changing. A new competition is emerging within the Gulf itself, and Yemen has become one of its principal battlegrounds.

The shift is significant because it reflects a broader transformation in Middle Eastern politics. Regional competition is no longer driven only by ideological divides, sectarian narratives, or traditional rivalries. It is increasingly shaped by economic interests, maritime security, trade routes, and competing ambitions for regional leadership.

When Saudi Arabia assembled a coalition to restore the internationally recognised government in 2015, the UAE emerged as one of its most active and capable partners. Both governments shared a common objective: rolling back Houthi advances and preventing what they viewed as expanding Iranian influence on the Arabian Peninsula.

Saudi Arabia has long viewed Yemen through the prism of national security. The Kingdom shares an extensive border with Yemen and has repeatedly experienced the consequences of instability emanating from its southern neighbour. Riyadh’s preferred outcome has therefore been relatively straightforward: a stable and unified Yemeni state capable of maintaining order while remaining within Saudi Arabia’s strategic orbit.

The UAE, however, approached Yemen from a different perspective. Abu Dhabi’s interests extended beyond the country’s internal political arrangements to encompass broader maritime and commercial considerations. Rather than focusing exclusively on state institutions in Sana’a, the UAE cultivated ties with local actors capable of securing strategic ports, coastal infrastructure, and shipping routes linking the Gulf to the Red Sea and East Africa.

While Saudi Arabia continued to support the preservation of Yemeni unity, the UAE invested heavily in actors whose ambitions often challenged that objective.

What initially appeared to be tactical disagreements gradually evolved into competing strategic projects.

Recent developments suggest that Saudi Arabia is attempting to reassert itself as the dominant external actor in Yemen. Political consultations hosted by Riyadh, efforts to coordinate anti-Houthi factions, and initiatives aimed at restructuring Yemen’s political landscape all point to a broader strategy: shaping the framework of a post-war political order under Saudi influence.

This marks an important transition in the conflict. The central question is no longer simply whether the Houthis can be defeated or whether Iranian influence can be contained. Increasingly, the issue is which Gulf power will emerge as Yemen’s primary external patron and political architect.

The importance of this competition becomes clearer when viewed through the lens of geography.

Yemen occupies one of the world’s most strategic locations. Overlooking the Bab Al-Mandab Strait, it sits astride a critical maritime corridor linking the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. A significant share of global trade and energy shipments depends on the security of this route.

The strategic significance of the waterway has become even more apparent since the outbreak of the Gaza war. Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea have disrupted shipping routes, forced many companies to reroute vessels around Africa, and increased transportation costs worldwide. What happens in Yemen no longer affects only the Arabian Peninsula; it has become a matter of global economic concern.

READ: Cargo vessel comes under attack off Yemen’s Red Sea coast, British maritime agency says