Battle for the soul of Osun 

By Paul Dada

The Independent National Electoral Commission through Adedayo Oketola, Chief Press Secretary to the INEC Chairman, Professor Amupitan Joash Amupitan, indicated it was ready for the Osun governorship election scheduled for  Saturday August 15.

As of Monday,  Oketola said sensitive materials  had already arrived in Osogbo, the Osun State capital. INEC also said it would draw 30,000 ad hoc staff for the election from serving members of the National Youth Service Corps.

But what INEC would not say is that  the contest for the Bola Ige House in Osogbo has become more than a routine struggle for political office. It is a battle over the direction of the state, the strength of competing political structures, the credibility of the electoral process and, ultimately, the kind of Osun that its people will inhabit for the next four years.

14 candidates are on the ballot, but the contest has increasingly taken the shape of a three-horse race involving the incumbent, Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party; the All Progressives Congress candidate, Bola Oyebamiji; and the African Democratic Congress candidate, Najeem Salam.

The other candidates are Olarenwaju Farinloye of the Action Alliance, Esan Olajide of the African Action Congress, Adeagbo Opawoye of the African Democratic Party, Adesina Adeyemi-Doro of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, Adewale Adebayo of the Allied Peoples Movement, Clement Adesuyi of the Action Peoples Party, Masilo Adeleke of the Boot Party, Taofeek Adeleke of the New Nigeria Peoples Party, Saliu Oyelami of the Peoples Redemption Party, Ogunsakin Olalekan of the Young Progressives Party and Adefemi Adesuyi of the Zenith Labour Party.

But electoral visibility, political machinery and the size of the battle suggest  Adeleke, Oyebamiji and Salam are the real contenders while the others may be aptly described as pretenders.

Adeleke seeks another four years 

For Adeleke, the election is a referendum on his first term and an opportunity to consolidate what he describes as his administration’s achievements.

The governor, who left the Peoples Democratic Party and joined Accord, is seeking re-election on a five-point agenda centred on youth, women and workers’ welfare, infrastructure, agro-industrial development, healthcare and education, and a better business environment for job creation.

His campaign also draws strength from the decision of the Osun PDP to back his re-election despite his departure from the party. The state PDP has already directed its structures to support him under the Accord platform.

That gives Adeleke an important advantage: incumbency combined with an existing political network.

He also enters the race while  still basking  in the memory of his 2022 victory over the then incumbent, Adegboyega Oyetola, still fresh in Osun politics.

But a second-term bid is different from a first election. Adeleke must convince voters that his administration has delivered enough to deserve another four years. He must also overcome criticism from opponents over governance, political instability and the controversies surrounding his relationship with the Federal Government and the APC.

His chances remain substantial because he controls the machinery of government and has a recognisable political base. But it may not be out of place to wonder whether his switch from PDP to Accord introduces an unusual complication. One is wont to ask whether the structures that helped him win in 2022 can be effectively transferred to a different party platform.

 Oyebamiji and the APC’s bid to reclaim Osun 

 For Bola Oyebamiji, the APC campaign is about “taking Osun back”.

Oyebamiji, a former Commissioner for Finance, is presenting himself as a candidate capable of bringing economic discipline, administrative reform and development to the state.

His seven-point PROSPER agenda focuses on poverty reduction and job creation, responsive governance, economic opportunities, security, agriculture, education and healthcare, as well as renewed investment in infrastructure.

The APC candidate has also promised fairness, transparency, accountability and equitable distribution of resources.

The biggest strength behind his campaign is the APC’s formidable political structure and its control of the Federal Government. Oyebamiji has repeatedly presented himself as the candidate backed by President Bola Tinubu, a claim he has used to reinforce his campaign.

But that same association may prove to be both an asset and a liability.

If voters see Federal Government backing as an opportunity for greater access to Abuja and federal resources, Oyebamiji could benefit. If, however, voters make the election primarily a judgement on their immediate economic circumstances, the APC candidate will have to persuade them that a change of government will produce tangible improvements.

His other major challenge is the need to overcome the advantage of incumbency enjoyed by Adeleke.

Still, the APC cannot be dismissed. Its grassroots network, political experience and access to federal influence make Oyebamiji a serious challenger.

 Salam and the search for a third force 

Najeem Salam of the ADC represents another dimension of the election.

A former Speaker of the Osun State House of Assembly, Salam brings political experience and an established profile to a campaign that is seeking to break the dominance of the two larger political forces.

His attraction lies partly in the possibility of becoming the alternative for voters who do not want either Adeleke or the APC.

But the difficulty is translating personal acceptability into the kind of statewide political machinery required to win a governorship election.

Salam therefore faces the classic challenge of third-force candidates: he must persuade voters that voting for him is not merely a protest but a realistic route to power.

The ADC campaign will need particularly strong mobilisation in the final days if it is to turn its visibility into votes.

 14 candidates, three serious contenders 

The presence of 14 candidates gives voters a broad choice, but the campaign has not been evenly matched.

The smaller parties provide alternatives and may influence the final arithmetic, particularly if they attract voters who are dissatisfied with the major contenders. Yet their limited visibility and organisational structures make a statewide breakthrough difficult.

This creates the possibility of a contest in which the eventual winner is determined not only by who attracts the largest following, but by who can convert support into votes across Osun’s 30 local government areas and 3,763 polling units.

That is where organisation becomes critical.

Violence casts a shadow 

Beyond the chances of winning on Saturday by each of the candidates, the most troubling feature of the campaign has been the recurring allegations of political violence.

Accord and APC have traded accusations over shootings and attacks involving their supporters. The police have had to warn both parties against inflammatory statements following competing claims over a shooting in Okini, Egbedore Local Government Area.

The accusations have gone beyond ordinary political name-calling.

The Adeleke administration has accused APC actors of organising violent squads, while the opposition has made its own allegations against people linked to the government and the governor’s political camp. The government has denied allegations that it planned to arm thugs and has, in turn, accused APC supporters of attacks on Accord members.

The seriousness of the situation prompted the Inspector-General of Police to order an immediate end to political killings and violence in the state.

The danger is obvious. 

When political parties begin to treat every act of violence as an opportunity to blame their opponents, the central question of who actually committed an offence can become lost in the political noise.

For ordinary voters, however, the consequences are not political.

They are personal.

A roadside rally can become a shooting. A campaign disagreement can become an attack. A political rivalry can destroy a family.

The election therefore presents security agencies with a test that goes beyond protecting ballot boxes. They must protect citizens.

INEC says it is ready 

Against the political turbulence, the Independent National Electoral Commission has been preparing for the August 15 poll.

INEC says it is logistically, technically and operationally ready for the election. The commission says the final register contains 2,339,233 eligible voters spread across 30 local government areas, 332 registration areas and 3,763 polling units. 14 political parties are participating.

The commission has also been working on transport and other logistics required to move personnel and materials around the state.

For INEC, however, preparedness will ultimately be judged not by press conferences but by what happens on election day.

These questions linger: Will materials arrive on time? Will the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System function properly? Will voters be able to cast their ballots without intimidation?  Will results be recorded and transmitted in accordance with the rules? And, perhaps most importantly, will losing candidates accept the outcome if the process is credible?

These questions matter because the credibility of an election is determined as much by public confidence as by the mechanics of voting.

What the election means to Osun

For the people of Osun, the election is not simply about Adeleke, Oyebamiji, Salam or any of the other candidates.

It is about daily life.

Osun remains a state where residents want better roads, stronger healthcare, quality education, reliable water supply, employment opportunities and an economy capable of supporting small businesses.

Young people want jobs and opportunities rather than political promises. Workers want improved welfare and regular payment of entitlements.

Farmers need access to markets, infrastructure, finance and security. Business owners want an environment where they can operate without excessive bureaucracy and insecurity. Parents want schools where their children can receive a quality education. Communities want government to reach them beyond election season.

These are the issues that should determine the election.

The campaign has produced plenty of political rhetoric, but the real question for voters is simple: which candidate can turn promises into measurable improvements?

  The winner’s burden 

Whoever wins on August 15 will inherit both the opportunities and problems of Osun.

Adeleke, if returned, will have little excuse for failing to deliver. A second term would give him continuity and enough time to deepen programmes started during his first term. But it would also place his record under even greater scrutiny.

If Oyebamiji wins, he will inherit a state divided by a bitter campaign and will have to demonstrate quickly that the APC’s promises of reform, jobs, infrastructure and economic growth were more than campaign slogans.

If Salam triumphs, the ADC would have achieved a major political breakthrough, and the new administration would have to build a governing structure capable of translating a third-force victory into effective administration.

The winner will also have to confront the question of political reconciliation.

An election cannot end with one side celebrating and the other nursing grievances indefinitely. Osun needs a government capable of governing for supporters and opponents alike.

 Beyond the ballot 

The battle for Osun’s political soul is ultimately a battle over what kind of state its citizens want.

It can remain trapped in cycles of political rivalry, accusations, defections and violence, or it can move towards a politics where performance matters more than propaganda and where elections are won through ideas rather than intimidation.

The August 15 election will provide that choice.