Atiku’s fuel subsidy plan may cost Nigeria ₦22trn yearly — Tinubu aide

Presidential aide O’tega Ogra has claimed that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s proposed petrol subsidy model could cost Nigeria between ₦19.1 trillion and ₦22.2 trillion annually, warning that the plan could recreate the challenges associated with the old subsidy regime.

Ogra, the Senior Special Assistant to President Bola Tinubu on Digital and New Media, made the claim during an interview on ARISE News on Monday while reacting to Atiku’s proposal to restore petrol subsidy through a crude supply arrangement.

He said the former vice president had not provided sufficient details on how the proposed policy would work, including the price cap, quantity of crude to be allocated to refineries, source of crude supply and the estimated cost of the programme.

According to Ogra, calculations based on current crude prices showed that the proposed subsidy arrangement could place a huge financial burden on the country.

He argued that moving subsidy from the petrol pump to crude supply would not fundamentally change the system that previously created loopholes and financial losses for Nigeria.

“A pig that you dress in white is still a pig. It’s as simple as that. That you move the subsidies from the pump to the barrel, you’re just doing the same invisible subsidy programme.”

Ogra said Nigeria’s previous subsidy regime created opportunities for abuse, recalling that the government had budgeted about ₦250 billion for subsidy in 2012 but ended up with claims of about ₦3.5 trillion.

He questioned how Atiku’s proposed model would prevent similar leakages, especially as refineries may combine Nigerian crude with imported crude and also export refined products.

According to him, the government would need to establish how much subsidised crude would actually translate into products consumed by Nigerians and how much could end up benefiting other markets.

Ogra also criticised Atiku over what he described as repeated changes in his position on the subsidy proposal.

“He has flip-flopped on it four times already in one week,” he said.

The presidential aide further disputed claims that President Bola Tinubu abruptly removed petrol subsidy in 2023, arguing that successive administrations had already taken steps to reduce the programme before its eventual removal.

He said the process began during Atiku’s tenure as vice president and continued under subsequent governments, adding that the 2023 Fiscal Act had already provided for subsidy payments only until June of that year.

However, Ogra admitted that the removal of the subsidy could have been implemented gradually because of the immediate impact on Nigerians.

“Honestly, Rotus, I agree with you. The subsidy should have been staggered,” he said.

He added that the government was now focused on cushioning the effects of economic reforms through social intervention programmes, transportation initiatives and the expansion of the Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) programme.

Ogra said more than 120,000 vehicles had already benefited from the CNG initiative through subsidised conversion kits or new CNG vehicles.

He maintained that the government’s focus was to create a sustainable economic system rather than return to what he described as an expensive and opaque subsidy structure.