US-Iran standoff deepens as nuclear deadlock holds, Pakistan steps in as unexpected mediator amid rising West Asia tensions

The United States and Iran are sitting at the same table, yet they are miles apart. A ceasefire is holding for now, but neither side is ready to blink first. Donald Trump is pushing hard, but the Iranian government is not bending under pressure. In this tense middle ground, Pakistan has quietly walked in as the main mediator, trying to connect both sides and stitch together some kind of deal.

At the end of the day, only Washington and Tehran can find a middle path — a deal where both leaders can go back home and say, “See, we got something.” As highlighted in a recent Indian Express analysis, there are four big knots to untie, and each one is tightly tied.

The Nuclear Knot

The biggest fight is over Iran’s nuclear programme. The US wants Iran to completely stop enriching uranium. But for Iran, this is not just a science project — it is a matter of national pride and sovereignty. Tehran also holds about 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium, which can be further enriched to 90% — enough material to build roughly 10 nuclear weapons.

The US is asking Iran to pause enrichment for 20 years. Iran is ready for only 5 years. Somewhere in between, a 10-year pause could become the compromise. As for the 440 kg, Trump himself has called it “nuclear dust” buried under rubble. A possible deal could be — keep the material locked inside protected sites like Isfahan and Natanz, don’t touch it, don’t move it. Problem parked, if not solved.

Money Frozen, Economy Bleeding

Iran wants two things urgently – sanctions lifted, and around $100 billion of its frozen money released from the US, Europe, and Gulf countries like Qatar. Western sanctions have already broken Iran’s economy. The Iranian currency crashed so badly that huge protests erupted in January.

But the US will not give this relief for free. Washington wants solid proof first — that Iran is serious about controlling its nuclear ambitions. Sanctions relief, for America, is not charity; it is a remote control to guide Iran’s behaviour.

The Strait of Hormuz – Iran’s Biggest Weapon

Iran has realised its strongest card is the Strait of Hormuz. Earlier, around 150 ships passed through this narrow sea route every single day. Now, only about 150 ships have passed in the last seven weeks of war. The shock has been felt in every country, because nearly 45% of the world’s oil and fuel moves through this strait.

But this card is hurting Iran too. The longer the strait stays closed, the more money Iran loses. The US naval blockade is squeezing Iran financially, though Chinese ships have mostly been allowed to slip through – creating a big loophole. If the nuclear and sanctions issues get sorted, Iran could reopen the strait, and the US, China, and Gulf nations could become joint security guarantors to keep it safe.

The Hardliners Inside Iran

Since the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, along with senior figures like Ali Shamkhani, Ali Larijani, and top IRGC commanders, Iran’s government has become more strict. The new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and security chief Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr are seen as hardliners. But Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is considered more practical and balanced.

Moderate voices – President Masoud Pezeshkian and former presidents Rouhani and Khatami – still exist, though weaker now. They could become useful bridges for talks. Many Iranians fear the regime will become even more repressive (harsh, controlling, and cutting freedoms) after the war. If Trump truly wants success in West Asia, he must also listen to these softer voices inside Iran.

Pakistan In The Spotlight, India Left Out

Pakistan has suddenly become the big mediator. It hosted talks between US Vice President JD Vance and Iran’s Ghalibaf. Army Chief Asim Munir has spoken directly with Trump and travelled to Tehran. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Deputy PM Ishaq Dar are also on calls with Gulf capitals.

Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar badly want peace – their entire economy of oil, finance, tourism, and business runs on stability.

India, according to the Indian Express, has been left on the sidelines. Even though New Delhi kept channels open with everyone, the US chose Pakistan as the bridge. This is uncomfortable for India, because nearly 10 million Indians live in the Gulf, 60% of our energy comes from there, and Gulf countries have huge investments in India. India must keep pushing quietly for peace – even if Pakistan is taking the credit today. Because peace in that region is our lifeline too.

( Girish Linganna is an award-winning science communicator and a Defence, Aerospace & Geopolitical Analyst. He is the Managing Director of ADD Engineering Components India Pvt. Ltd., a subsidiary of ADD Engineering GmbH, Germany. )

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own and do not reflect those of News24)