Ukraine now struggles to intercept ballistic missiles, data show

KYIV – Ukraine’s ability to shoot down Russian ballistic missiles has deteriorated in recent large-scale attacks, a sign that Kyiv is lacking US-made Patriot interceptors to defend against strikes.

Ukraine failed to intercept any of the 23 Iskander-M ballistic missiles or the six high-speed Zircon and Oniks missiles launched by Russia in an overnight strike from July 5 to 6, according to a Ukrainian Air Force tally published on Telegram. 

It had previously intercepted roughly one-third of the ballistic missiles fired in Russia’s large-scale air assaults, and sometimes even more.

The weakening performance emerged as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte cautioned on July 6 that allies don’t have an endless supply of interceptors. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly urged allies to replenish the country’s stock of Patriot munitions to help protect Kyiv and other cities from attack.

A typical Russian aerial barrage combines hundreds of attack drones with dozens of cruise and ballistic missiles. While Ukraine has become increasingly effective at intercepting Shahed-type drones and slower-flying cruise projectiles, ballistic missiles remain a major challenge because of their high speeds and steep trajectories.

The ground-launched Iskander-M missile is Russia’s primary ballistic weapon and has a range of about 500km. It can reach targets within minutes, leaving civilians little time to seek shelter and giving air defenses only a narrow window to intercept it.

Russia usually deploys them against Ukraine in two ways. 

Dagger-style strikes involving fewer than 10 ballistic missiles are often aimed at areas that aren’t covered by advanced air defenses. Such strikes are dangerous but localised and generally ineffective against Kyiv and other key cities protected by Patriot systems.

To inflict significant damage on Kyiv, Russia typically launches large coordinated attacks involving swarms of attack drones and cruise missiles intended to saturate air defenses and distract radar operators. Moscow follows up with a dozen or more Iskander-Ms in the expectation that some missiles will get through.

The effectiveness of Russia’s barrage tactic appears to depend in part on the availability of Patriot interceptors in Ukraine. Although Kyiv doesn’t disclose its missile stocks, Zelensky announced Patriot resupply deliveries on several occasions this year.

Those announcements broadly coincide with improvements in Ukraine’s interception rates against Iskander-M missiles, a Bloomberg analysis of Ukrainian Air Force data shows.

Some of Ukraine’s recent declining performance against Iskander-M may also be attributed to the fact that Russia has been increasing the number of these missiles in its strikes in the past three months. 

The slump in the interception rate to zero during mass attacks involving 15 or more Iskander-M missiles may be particularly worrying for Kyiv. Russian strikes on the Ukrainian capital in recent days were particularly deadly, killing at least 45 people in total, with Iskander-Ms causing much of the destruction. BLOOMBERG