Trump’s Kharg threat, reversal show Iran war high-wire act

In the space of a few hours on June 11, US President Donald Trump revived – and then quickly abandoned – a threat he’s made several times in the course of the Iran conflict: capturing Kharg Island, a vital centre of Iranian energy infrastructure.

It is a tantalising target for Trump. The island handles the vast majority of the country’s oil exports and represents perhaps the most direct way to squeeze the Tehran regime economically and deprive it of a critical source of revenue.

Trump said in a social media post June 11 that the US “will be taking Kharg Island” and assume control of Iran’s oil and gas markets. In a subsequent interview with Fox News, he said his preference has always been to take the prized site. 

In the same interview, he acknowledged the significant political risks of such a move.

“I don’t know that America has the stomach for it, to be honest with you,” Trump said. And hours later, he abandoned that goal, at least for now, saying talks on a deal were close and the US was calling off strikes. Asked in the Oval Office if a Kharg Island operation was off the table, he said, “if we sign this agreement, it would be.”

The back-and-forth reflects a tension at the centre of Trump’s approach to Iran. As the war drags on with no end in sight, the president is floating increasingly aggressive options while signalling he understands the domestic political risks of carrying them out.

The Kharg threat also underscores the extent to which Trump’s rhetoric can outrun reality, with Tehran more willing to keep up the fight and wait out a president looking for an exit.

Seizing Kharg would mark a significant escalation in the war, posing risks for American troops and further entrenching the US in the conflict while triggering further tumult in oil markets. 

The small island off the Iranian mainland has been a critical oil export terminal for decades, and any disruption to operations there or unexpected swings in export volumes can quickly affect energy prices.  

Until now, the American campaign has relied primarily on air power, naval forces and long-range strikes. Capturing and holding Iranian territory would require American troops on the ground, crossing a threshold Trump spent years promising voters he would avoid.

A seizure of Kharg would likely fall to the Marines, who could both capture the island and establish a defensive position afterward. Other units, such as the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, could rapidly deploy but would face greater challenges holding territory over an extended period.

For now, Kharg remains more useful as negotiating leverage than as a military objective. Yet the fact that Trump continues raising it publicly highlights how few attractive options remain as a war he once suggested could be resolved quickly shows no signs of ending.

Iran has repeatedly warned that any attempt to seize sovereign territory would trigger a major retaliation, raising the prospect of a broader regional conflict and potentially drawing the US deeper into the war with additional American casualties.

That risk comes at a difficult political moment. Trump campaigned on ending foreign wars and keeping American troops out of prolonged overseas conflicts. A ground operation inside Iran would be difficult to reconcile with that message, particularly as public support for the war remains weak and Republicans increasingly worry about its political costs before November’s midterm elections.

The president’s frustration has become increasingly visible. For months, he repeatedly suggested the US and Iran were close to reaching an agreement. On numerous occasions he indicated a breakthrough was imminent, only for negotiations to stall and fighting to resume, most recently over the past few days.

Trump has also promised that energy prices and inflationary pressures would ease once the war ends. With both sides digging in, that argument has become harder to sustain. BLOOMBERG