Trump shows control over Republican base with primary wins

President Donald Trump demonstrated his sway over the Republican party base in a deep red state after he supported a group of challengers to Indiana’s state senators who had defied the President by refusing his push for redistricting.

At least six of the eight state senators who had opposed Mr Trump’s redistricting plans were projected to lose their reelection bids, according to DDHQ projections. One incumbent held off a pair of challengers, while another race in the state was too close to call. 

Mr Trump and Indiana’s Governor Mike Braun endorsed the same challenger in seven of the contests in a campaign that exposed a significant rift within the GOP. By reshaping the Republican caucus, Mr Trump showed the potential repercussions for crossing him on a high-profile vote and increased the odds of the state reviving redistricting of congressional seats. 

The effort had been a priority for Mr Trump to seek to maintain hold of the house ahead of the midterms, with Texas leading the charge to redraw boundaries in favor of Republicans. But after Democrats pushed for changes in California and Virginia the attempt may have been largely offset, frustrating the White House.

Voters in Ohio handily also backed former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy’s bid to be the Republican nominee for governor, while Democrat Sherrod Brown will get another shot at returning to the Senate after being defeated in 2024. 

With the war in Iran dragging on and fuel prices soaring, Mr Ramaswamy and Mr Brown will test whether voters in the one-time bellwether state stick with the largely Republican leadership they have backed in recent elections or drift back toward Democrats in frustration over Mr Trump’s economic stewardship. 

Mr Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur who was initially part of the government-efficiency effort led by billionaire Elon Musk, was projected to easily win the GOP primary on May 5, according to NBC News and Decision Desk HQ. 

In the November race to replace term-limited Republican Governor Mike DeWine, Mr Ramaswamy will face Democrat Amy Acton, a doctor who was DeWine’s health director during the pandemic. 

Mr Brown, who as a lawmaker embraced the Democratic party’s working class base and opposed free trade deals, won his party’s nomination for the state’s Senate seat. He will face Republican Jon Husted, the former Ohio lieutenant governor who was appointed to replace J.D. Vance when he became vice-president.

While historically seen as a swing state, Ohio has become more reliably Republican under Mr Trump. He won the state three times, by 8 percentage points in 2016 and 2020 and by 11 points in 2024. The last Democrat to win a governor’s race in Ohio was Mr Ted Strickland in 2006, when Mr Brown was first elected to the Senate.

With voters nationally souring over the economy, healthcare and concerns about artificial intelligence, Ohio will play a pivotal role in the battle for control of the Senate. And Republicans this cycle are defending just one seat – Maine – where Ms Kamala Harris won in 2024.

That means that Democrats’ path to the majority hinges on flipping seats in states that backed Mr Trump for president. So the party is going on offense in places like Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, Alaska and Texas. 

The Cook Political Report recently shifted its rating of the Senate contest in Ohio to “toss-up” from “lean Republican”, while the rating of the state’s governor’s race shifted to “lean Republican” from “likely Republican”.

The state’s economy has long relied on auto-making, steel production and other manufacturing but lost 40 per cent of its factory jobs between 1990 and 2010 as factory jobs moved offshore, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. 

Since then, Ohio has attracted more technology-related development in recent years, including data centers. The state ranked 19th in the US in job creation in the last year and second in the Midwest after Minnesota. BLOOMBERG