OPEC+ set to pause monthly output increases after September

OPEC+ may approve another oil production increase for September before pausing further monthly output hikes for the rest of the year.

The group, made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, is expected to approve an additional 188,000 barrels per day increase when it meets on August 2, according to Reuters sources.

If approved, the increase will match the production boosts announced for June, July and August. It will also complete the return of the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut agreed in 2023, adjusted after the UAE left OPEC in May.

Sources said production targets are likely to remain unchanged from October until new quotas take effect in January 2027, although no final decision has been made.

The planned pause would leave another 2 million barrels per day of OPEC+ production cuts in place until the end of 2026.

The group must also decide how much oil each member should be allowed to produce in 2027. It is reviewing the maximum production capacity of member countries, which will be used to set new output quotas.

Countries such as Iraq are seeking higher production quotas, saying they have invested heavily to increase their oil production capacity.

Recent events have made the review more difficult. The conflict involving Iran has reduced oil exports from some Middle Eastern producers and lowered the group’s spare production capacity. Iraq is still facing export challenges, Kazakhstan has cut output after attacks affected Black Sea export routes, while Russia is dealing with refinery and oil terminal disruptions.

Although OPEC+ has raised production targets in recent months, the group’s actual oil output has fallen. The higher targets simply allow members to increase production when infrastructure and export conditions improve.

The group must now determine how much production capacity each member truly has, how future quotas should be shared, and whether the global oil market will need more supply in 2027.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects a large oil surplus if shipments through the Strait of Hormuz fully recover.