Nigeria falls short of oil production target by 16.6m barrels in two months

Nigeria recorded a crude oil and condensate production shortfall of about 16.6 million barrels in the first two months of 2026.

It emphasises persistent underperformance in the country’s oil sector, according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). 

Between January and February, Nigeria produced a combined total of roughly 92 million barrels, falling short of the projected 108.6 million barrels expected under the federal government’s 2026 benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day (bpd).

In January, total liquids output averaged 1.63 million bpd, about 210,000 bpd below target.

Production declined further in February to 1.48 million bpd, widening the gap to around 360,000 bpd.

Crude oil, which forms the bulk of Nigeria’s output, dropped from 1.46 million bpd in January to 1.31 million bpd in February, while condensate production provided only limited support.

The decline was reflected across major export terminals, including Qua Iboe, Bonny, Forcados, Escravos, and Brass, all reporting significant reductions in output.

Despite global oil prices remaining strong at $110–$120 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions, Nigeria’s inability to scale up production has limited the country’s capacity to capitalise on higher prices.

Earlier reports indicated that crude production rose to 1.459 million bpd in January, maintaining Nigeria’s position as Africa’s largest producer, though still below its OPEC quota.

Production fell sharply in February, a 10.69% decrease from January levels, according to OPEC data.

Optimism remains for recovery, with Bashir Bayo Ojulari projecting that production could increase by about 100,000 bpd in the coming months.

Nigeria’s fiscal health remains heavily dependent on oil volumes and global prices.

With the federal government using a conservative production estimate of 1.8 million bpd for budget planning, the February shortfall highlights missed revenue opportunities at a time of elevated global crude prices.