World
Most Israelis no longer think Israel’s security a main concern for Trump, poll finds
There has been a sharp decline in the percentage of Israelis who believe that Israeli security is a key concern of US President Donald Trump, according to a new Israel Democracy Index Survey released on Tuesday, as Jerusalem finds itself locked out of negotiations between the US and Iran for a permanent end to the war that began in February.
The survey was conducted from May 31 to June 5, before Iran renewed its missile fire on Israel for the first time in two months on Sunday and Trump ordered Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to retaliate, although Israel ultimately did anyway.
Just 44% of Israelis told IDI that they believe Israel’s security is a central consideration for Trump, down from 60% in March, when Israel and the US were in the midst of the joint offensive against Iran.
Among Jewish Israelis, 41% said they believe Israel’s security is a key concern for Trump, down from 64% in March. By contrast, the belief that Israel’s security is a key concern for Trump rose to 59% among Arab Israeli respondents, up from 43% in March.
When broken down by political leaning, the IDI survey found that just 25.5% of left-wing Jewish Israelis, 32% of centrists, and 48% of right-wing Jewish Israelis believe the security of the Jewish state is a key concern for Trump, down from 34.5%, 62%, and 70% respectively in March.
Since the question was last posed, a ceasefire was introduced on April 8, and Trump opened negotiations with Iran for a deal to permanently end the war, which Israel has been almost entirely shut out of.
The figure among Israeli Jews represents a sharp drop from 64% in May and is the lowest figure recorded since IDI began asking the question in November 2024, when Trump won the US presidential election.
Potentially shedding light on the reason for this drop in expectations for Trump’s concern over Israel’s security, survey participants were asked whether they think ending the war with Iran under the current conditions is “compatible with Israel’s security interests.”
Just 29% of Jewish Israelis responded that they believe ending the war under the current conditions would be “to a large extent” compatible with Israel’s security interests, while 63% said they believed it was compatible “to a small extent” or “not at all,” and eight percent said they didn’t know.
Among Arab Israelis, respondents answered in the opposite direction, with 60.5% saying it would be in line with Israel’s security interests to end the war through negotiations, and 33% saying it would not be.
Low expectations for outcome of deal
Respondents were also asked about their expectations for the contents of the potential deal between the US and Iran, and whether it would adequately address the threat of nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, and the future of the extremist Iranian regime.
The highest share of respondents said they believed that the deal would include provisions against Iran’s nuclear program, with 56% saying they think it will “prevent the continued development of nuclear weapons.”
However, just 32% of respondents believe the deal will eliminate the threat of ballistic missile fire, and only 28% expect it to weaken the Iranian regime.
When compared to the March survey, it is clear that there is more optimism over the chance of achieving these goals through a military offensive than there is through negotiations.
At the time, 63% of respondents said they believed the joint US-Israeli operation would eliminate Iran’s nuclear program, 64.5% said it would eliminate the ballistic missile threat, and 55% said they expected it to topple the Iranian regime.
While Netanyahu has repeatedly insisted that there are no gaps between the US and Israeli position on Iran, cracks have emerged in recent days, after Trump warned Israel not to retaliate when Iran fired several waves of ballistic missiles at northern Israel on Sunday night, fearing it would derail negotiations to end the war.
According to Axios, Trump warned Netanyahu in a phone call that Israel could end up on its own if it proceeded with retaliatory attacks, and said he would not grant Israel a “green light” to strike the Islamic Republic, although Netanyahu authorized the strikes anyway.
Trump was reported to have ultimately reined him in on Monday afternoon, persuading Netanyahu to call off a major strike on Iran when the fighter jets were already on the runway.
Netanyahu suggested in a video statement on Monday night that, with the strikes, he was sending a message to Iran and Hezbollah and demonstrating to Trump that Israel will decide on its own when to use military force.
According to Channel 12, however, Netanyahu’s decision to hold Israeli fire came only after significant pressure from Trump, who told the network that he warned Netanyahu Israel could be left alone if it escalated the conflict with Iran.
The IDI survey was conducted online and over the phone and included the responses of 603 Jewish Israelis and 150 Arab Israelis, representative of Israel’s adult population, and with a margin of error of 3.57%.
