Architects of Peace, Contractors of War

Diplomacy is sometimes less the art of ending war than the art of transferring responsibility for it. Many agreements born in quiet negotiating rooms fail not because the parties disagree over principles, but because no one is willing to bear the cost of implementing them. The contemporary history of the Middle East has repeatedly shown that a deep gap exists between signing an agreement and carrying it out—a gap that is often filled by violence.

The latest U.S.-brokered talks in Rome have given the June 26 framework agreement between the United States, Israel, and Lebanon a new appearance of momentum. The discussions focused on proposed “pilot zones” in which Israel is to withdraw from parts of the occupied territories, the Lebanese Army is to deploy in the south, and armed groups—above all Hezbollah—are to withdraw and ultimately disarm. U.S. officials initially described the agreement as “the first step toward lasting peace” and have since called the Rome talks “productive and positive.” If one reads only the text of the agreement and the latest diplomatic statements, such optimism may seem understandable. The main issue, however, lies not in what has been written, but in what has not.

Nearly all discussions surrounding the agreement initially focused on one question: Would Hezbollah agree to disarm?

The answer is far from simple. Israel has repeatedly declared that its full withdrawal depends on Hezbollah’s disarmament. Hezbollah, in turn, has made it clear that it considers this condition a red line. The agreement is therefore built upon the very point on which the two sides continue to disagree. Such an agreement can have meaning only if there is a mechanism to resolve this deadlock.

In successful postwar settlements, the answer is usually clear. Either an international force guarantees implementation, one of the victorious parties assumes responsibility for enforcing the agreement, or the settlement is built on a compromise accepted by all the principal actors. In the June 26 agreement, however, none of these conditions exists.

Here the agreement’s first paradox becomes clear. The most difficult and costly part of the agreement is precisely the part for which no one has accepted direct responsibility.

This gap cannot be concealed by the language of diplomacy. Agreements are ultimately judged not by political statements but by the actions of the actors on the ground. Now that Hezbollah has refused to disarm, who is supposed to compel it?

The answer, though rarely discussed, is embedded in both the text and the logic of the agreement: the Lebanese government.

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At first glance, this seems natural. Should not the state alone hold the legitimate monopoly over the use of force? Should not the Lebanese Army assume full control of the country’s south? Yet this seemingly obvious answer exposes the agreement’s greatest weakness.

Hezbollah is not simply an armed organization that can be disarmed through a security operation. Over the past four decades, it has become part of Lebanon’s political, social, and security structure.

Its popular base, parliamentary presence, influence within the government, and extensive organizational network mean that any attempt to eliminate its military capacity would quickly turn from a security operation into a political and sectarian crisis. Under such circumstances, assigning the Lebanese government to carry out this mission means placing the state itself against one of the country’s most powerful domestic forces.

Here, the agreement’s true nature becomes clear.

What appears to be a plan to end the war between Israel and Hezbollah actually transfers responsibility for continuing it to another actor. Israel is no longer expected to bear the cost of disarming Hezbollah, and the United States has no intention of entering such a confrontation directly. Instead, the Lebanese government is expected to accomplish a mission that even Israel, despite years of military operations and overwhelming military superiority, failed to achieve.